Improving effectiveness of disaster forecasting and early warning

ĐBP - Disaster forecasting and early warning are not just technical tasks but serve as the foundation for localities to take proactive measures and minimize damage when disasters strike. In the context of increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather, the demand for detailed, realistic, and locally tailored forecasts has become ever more urgent.

In Điện Biên province, weather information, including forecasts of heavy rainfall, flash floods, and landslides, provided by the provincial Hydro-Meteorological Station is regularly delivered to civil defense commands at all levels. Particularly during complex weather events, information is updated continuously throughout the day. Based on these reports, communes and wards activate the “four on-the-spot” principle, assign 24/7 on-duty staff, increase warning broadcasts via local loudspeakers, share updates promptly on social networks, dispatch officials to directly notify high-risk areas, and organize the evacuation of residents from danger zones. During prolonged heavy rains, warnings are issued multiple times a day, with details specific to each commune and ward, helping communities respond proactively and reduce risks.

Floods in early August caused severe destruction in many communes. In the photo: A collapsed, buried house in Xa Dung commune.

However, for two consecutive years, the province has suffered heavy losses of life and property due to floods. The devastation in communes such as Xa Dung, Tìa Dình, Mường Luân, and Na Son in early August, with collapsed houses and isolated villages, has raised alarm about the urgent need to further enhance forecasting and warning effectiveness, particularly at the grassroots level where information is directly delivered to residents.

Na Son commune was among the hardest hit in the recent floods: 22 of its 41 villages and neighborhoods were affected, with 539 households and over 1,700 people impacted, and total damages estimated at more than VND 300 billion. Notably, the commune lacks any equipment or systems for monitoring rainfall or other natural hazards, and its professional capacity is insufficient for conducting weather or disaster forecasts.

Residents of Na Son commune overcome aftermath of the floods.

Nguyễn Thanh Lâm, Vice Chairman of the Na Son commune People’s Committee, said: “We receive all warnings from the provincial level and then relay them to villages and neighborhoods via liaison groups, official documents, and loudspeakers. At the same time, commune officials go directly to high-risk areas to notify people of landslide or flood dangers. Since we cannot make forecasts ourselves, our main measure is to spread forecasts and warnings as widely as possible and mobilize people to move out of danger zones. After the recent disaster, the commune petitioned the province for funding to build safe resettlement areas.”

Pú Nhung commune faced similar severe damage. When weather conditions worsened, local authorities promptly disseminated provincial forecasts to residents through loudspeakers, telephones, Zalo groups, and Facebook. They closely monitored vulnerable sites and prepared response measures. In early August, five households living along the Phình Sáng-Mường Giàng road faced a high risk of landslides, while 2,000 cubic meters of debris accumulated in the Đề Sua Stream (Bon B village), threatening flash floods for nearby households.

The Chairman of the Pú Nhung commune People’s Committee, together with local forces, monitoring conditions and urging residents to move out of landslide-prone areas.

Nguyễn Văn Bách, Chairman of the Pú Nhung commune People’s Committee, noted: “We continuously update weather information. Alongside communication to residents, the commune activated the Civil Defense Command, mobilized forces to temporarily handle landslide points, erected warning signs in hazardous areas, persuaded households to relocate to safe areas, and reported to the province to urgently evacuate residents from danger zones.”

Currently, the province has 125 automatic rain gauges operating in coordination with meteorological and hydrological stations to provide the earliest possible warnings. Still, rainfall is only a trigger factor; forecast accuracy also depends on background conditions such as terrain, geology, soil saturation, surface cover, and human activities. Therefore, in addition to increasing the density of monitoring stations, there is a need to invest in modern equipment integrating data, and to enhance forecasting and warning capacity down to the grassroots. At the same time, it is essential to provide training for commune-level staff and equip residents with the knowledge to interpret warnings and follow clear evacuation plans.

Natural disasters cannot be prevented, but damage can be reduced if forecasts are accurate, warnings timely, and responses proactive.

Contributing to disaster preparedness, on August 5, the provincial People’s Committee issued a decision to distribute national reserves for disaster prevention to all 45 communes and wards, as well as related sectors. These included 610 lifebuoys, 1,000 life jackets, 20 tents (16.5m2 each), and 5 larger tents (24.75m2 each). This provided practical resources for localities to respond and recover.

Natural disasters cannot be prevented, but their damage can certainly be reduced with accurate forecasts, timely warnings, effective communication, and proactive, prepared communities.

Nguyễn Hiền
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